F&W Forestry | Covid-19’s Certain—and Uncertain

It is too soon to know the full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the forest products sector, but data is beginning to reveal mixed results.

“There were 700,000 tons of tissue manufactured in March, the highest monthly figure since pre-recession 2007. But commercial and writing paper were down,” writes Marshall Thomas, president of F&W Forestry Services, Inc., in his company’s summer newsletter. “Lumber production nosedived in March but is now recovering.”

Thomas noted that after starting off the year on a strong note, housing starts plummeted in April but then rose in May. Sales of newly built homes followed a similar trend, with May numbers 12.7 percent above the same month a year ago.

“What we all need to know—and won’t until it’s over—is whether we will see a V-, U-, L-, or W-shaped recovery,” Thomas writes. “Of course, we all want to see a V, meaning the drop will be fast and the recovery as fast, and there are some signs that may be the case, but we won’t know for a couple of years.”

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