Single-family Starts Vs. Multi-family: A New Way to Present Lumber Use

In 2019, the U.S. reached 1.3 million housing starts, which grew higher in 2020. Previously, that number was thought to be the threshold for creating demand pressure on sawtimber stumpage prices, but this time, it didn’t happen.

Why could that be? Marshall Thomas, president of F&W Forestry Services, Inc., delves into this question in this quarter’s issue of his company’s newsletter. He cites an oversupply of trees in the South as one factor, but also believes the blending of single- and multi-family starts into one data point may be an issue because multi-family houses use only about 40 percent of the lumber that goes into a single-family home.

Thomas created a “Lumber Use-Adjusted Housing Starts” graph to equalize the amount of lumber used for both single- and multi-family starts. After reviewing historical data, Thomas forecasts that when lumber-adjusted housing starts exceed a rate of 1.2 million units, demand pressure should begin to influence stumpage prices.

Thomas said going forward the newsletter will include the new graph to provide readers with a more useful tool for analysis and information.

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