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Betsy Bates

More Of The Same For 2019

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It’s taken almost a decade for housing starts to slowly return to 1.3 million units—the threshold when housing begins to have an impact on lumber prices—but the housing sector appears to have plateaued.
“It took almost 10 years to slowly but steadily get to a decent level of housing starts, raising expectations for all of us in the tree-growing business, and now we have stalled right at the point where demand might have created some upward pressure on prices paid for trees,” writes Marshall Thomas, president of F&W Forestry Services, Inc., in the winter issue of his company’s newsletter, F&W Forestry Report.
In late 2016, housing starts reached 1.3 million, but since then they have bounced between 1.1 and 1.3 million units, with little to no trend.
“I’m afraid there is nothing in the outlook to suggest that 2019 will be much different from the last two years,” Thomas writes.  “But most forecasts since 2008 have been wrong, including mine, so maybe I’ll be wrong this time.”

TO SEE THE FULL ARTICLE IN THE WINTER 2019 F&W FORESTRY REPORT, SUBSCRIBE NOW

Betsy Bates

Marshall Thomas: Timber Markets Give And Take

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While timber prices were steady during the third quarter of 2018, there were some troubling developments impacting timber markets that continue to struggle to recover from the Great Recession.

“It doesn’t seem like timber markets can get a break,” Marshall Thomas, President of F&W Forestry Services, writes in the latest issue of his company’s quarterly newsletter, the F&W Forestry Report.

At the start of the quarter, housing and wood exports markets were doing fairly well, but by September, home construction had slowed and the trade war between the U.S. and China boiled over and is now impacting forest products.

“Housing starts seem stuck at 1.2 million, and there are way too many multi-family starts (which use much less lumber than single family homes),” Thomas said.

“And just when we thought the Chinese markets, which have propped up the West Coast log and lumber markets, were going to start positively affecting the Southern U.S., the trade wars take that new market away—along with established wood export markets out of the Northeast and the West,” Thomas added.

TO SEE THE FULL ARTICLE IN THE FALL 2018 F&W FORESTRY REPORT, SUBSCRIBE NOW

 

Betsy Bates

Log Exports To China Could Boost Southern Timber Markets

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While West Coast timber prices have recovered nicely, the South continues to wallow in an oversupply of sawtimber and low stumpage (standing timber) prices. But pine log exports to the Far East from Southern ports may offer new opportunities for forest landowners.

Marshall Thomas, F&W President, writes in his company’s summer newsletter that Southern exports to China nearly doubled in 2017 from the previous three years.

“We will have to wait to see if this trend continues, but it sure is heartening to see that we exported pine logs worth almost $350 million last year,” Thomas said. “That’s probably not enough to affect prices, but it is a step in the right direction.”

TO SEE THE FULL ARTICLE IN THE SUMMER 2018 F&W FORESTRY REPORT, SUBSCRIBE NOW

 

 

Betsy Bates

Mediocre Demand And Aging Forests Weigh On Timber Markets

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Despite the steady rise in housing starts, a primary driver of demand for wood products, timber markets are muddling, the head of one of the nation’s largest forest management firms writes in his firm’s quarterly newsletter.

Marshall Thomas, president of F&W Forestry Services, which operates across the major forested regions of the Eastern U.S., said in his firm’s summer newsletter that the current state of timber markets can be explained by the theory of supply and demand.

“Demand, in my opinion, still remains an issue,” Thomas said. “While housing starts have increased, they haven’t reached the magic level of 1.3 million units per year, which seems to be the accepted level at which demand begins to impact [timber] prices at normal supply levels.”

But Thomas also said there is an oversupply of softwood sawtimber, caused by the aging forest and the drop in the demand for wood during the recent recession.

“The aging forest means that we have a disproportionate amount of large trees, and the reduction in harvests has resulted in a buildup of supply,” Thomas added. “Prices will improve when all those factors balance.”

TO SEE THE FULL ARTICLE IN THE SUMMER 2017 F&W FORESTRY REPORT, SUBSCRIBE NOW

Betsy Bates

Timber Prices Flat In 2016; Washington Changes Create Challenges/Opportunities

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Timber markets didn’t have a great year in 2016. A lackluster home building sector, dry weather conditions, and increased Canadian lumber imports into the U.S. combined to hold timber prices in place.

“Housing starts stayed relatively flat and so did our (timber) stumpage prices,” wrote Marshall Thomas, president of F&W Forestry Services, Inc., in the winter edition of his company’s quarterly newsletter.

However, Thomas said the change in weather patterns towards the end of the year will hopefully give a boost to timber prices in the coming months.

Anticipated changes in Washington could also have a big impact on timber markets and the forest industry.

“Changes in taxes and trade positions could have dramatic impacts and we just don’t know which way that will go right now,” Thomas said.

“This election upset may lead to some economic changes that benefit us—let’s hope for the best as the new president sets up his administration and begins to set policy,” said Thomas. “It is a good time to get more involved with your Congressmen and Senators to make sure they are on their toes in terms of our specific forestry issues.”

TO SEE THE FULL ARTICLE IN THE WINTER 2017 F&W FORESTRY REPORT, SUBSCRIBE NOW

Betsy Bates

Fountains Forestry Changes Name to F&W

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ALBANY, Ga., Jan. 9 — Fountains Forestry, a leading forest management company in the Northeast U.S. acquired by F&W Forestry Services, Inc., in 2016, is changing its name to F&W Forestry Services. The name change, which reflects the company’s deepening relationship with its parent corporation, was effective Jan. 1, 2017.

Georgia-based F&W is one of America’s premier forest resource consulting, management and real estate firms. The acquisition of Fountains Forestry, which includes six offices operating in the hardwood forest regions of New England and Appalachia, was completed in April 2016.

“F&W and Fountains share many common core values, the two most important being excellence in forest management and customer service,” said F&W President Marshall Thomas. “The assimilation of Fountains into F&W has gone so smoothly that we agreed the timing was right to consolidate both forest management operations under one identity.”

F&W has more than 300 employees and manages over two million acres (900,000 hectares) of forest and woodlands worldwide.

Two other companies acquired by F&W in April, Fountains Land Inc., a retail real estate firm operating in the Northeast U.S., and Fountains Forestry UK, Ltd., a forest management and real estate firm operating in the U.K., will retain their names.

 

About F&W:

Established in 1962, F&W Forestry Services, Inc., of Albany, Ga., is one of the nation’s oldest and largest forest consulting and management firms. The company handles timber sales, provides comprehensive forest management and consulting services, and offers real estate service and timberland investment opportunities.  The company maintains a network of 25 offices in 14 U.S. states comprising the Southern pine belt, the Central and Appalachia regions, the Northeast, and Oregon in the Pacific Northwest. F&W also manages private forestland internationally through 12 offices located in Canada, Uruguay, Brazil, France, and the United Kingdom.

Betsy Bates

Supply-Demand Issues Hold Timber Markets Flat

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The factors of supply and demand are at work in the timber markets, impacting stumpage (standing tree) prices paid to tree growers for timber products, from large lumber-size trees for home building and other construction projects to smaller pulpwood-size trees for the paper and packaging industry.

Marshall Thomas, president of F&W Forestry Services, Inc., one of the nation’s leading forestry management and consulting firms, wrote in his company’s quarterly newsletter, The F&W Forestry Report, that while the long term outlook for forestry remains good, in the short term tree growers should not expect much in the way of change from the timber markets.

“While housing starts continue to ease upward along with lumber prices during the third quarter, prices paid to landowners for pine sawtimber stayed flat—a condition that is unlikely to change until housing starts rise considerably,” Thomas said. “Even then, it is likely to take some real wet weather or another supply disturbance to put real pressure on pine sawtimber prices.”

Thomas also reports that while prices for pine pulpwood eased somewhat during the quarter, they “remain high enough to provide an economically viable alternative to sawtimber management in some regions.”

TO SEE THE FULL ARTICLE IN THE FALL 2016 F&W FORESTRY REPORT, SUBSCRIBE NOW»

Betsy Bates

Timber Prices Remain Flat Despite Wet Weather

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While the New Year started off on a promising note with housing starts on the rise and predictions of a wet winter ahead, timber stumpage (standing tree) prices remained steady to declining in the first quarter of 2016, the head of one of the nation’s largest forest management reports.

Marshall Thomas, president of F&W Forestry Services, Inc., one of the nation’s leading forestry management and consulting firms, reports in his firm’s quarterly newsletter that timber prices didn’t “kick-up” as anticipated in the first quarter.

“Unfortunately, while we had plenty of wet weather, prices didn’t go up much or stay at increased levels long,” wrote Thomas.  “Just another illustration that we still have a supply/demand problem for sawtimber in the U.S.”

“Worse yet, housing starts stayed flat during the first quarter, once again moving upward more slowly than most forecasts,” Thomas added. “We are certainly in a recovery but it is slow and dull.”

TO SEE THE FULL ARTICLE IN THE SPRING 2016 F&W FORESTRY REPORT, SUBSCRIBE NOW»