Timber Prices Climb: Market Adjustment or Weather?

After wavering over the winter, timber prices are up from a year ago, but only time will tell if this is due to wet conditions or is more long-term.

“We are seeing an increase in stumpage prices that we hope is due to the increase in demand and increased lumber prices, and not wet weather. Once again, as we enter the dry season, we will have to wait and see if prices drop back to previous levels or hold,” writes Marshall Thomas, president of F&W Forestry Services, in the spring issue of his company’s newsletter. “If they hold, then we will know that we are finally having a market adjustment and not a short-term weather adjustment.”

Thomas also says that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is creating uncertainty and could have an impact on timber markets as well, depending on whether and how trade and supply chains are disrupted.

Another factor is housing starts, which look good—there is a backlog of permitted houses that have not started construction—but the increase in interest rates could have an impact there as well.

“We will just have to wait and see how it plays out,” Thomas writes.

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